AI Overviews and Organic CTR: What 14 Months of Data Show
Seer Interactive's study of 5.47 million queries found organic CTR on AI Overview queries fell from 3.19% in January 2025 to 1.31% in December 2025, then recovered to 2.36% by February 2026. Cited brands earn 2.1% CTR versus 0.9% for uncited brands — a 2.3x gap.
How much traffic do AI Overviews take?
The largest longitudinal dataset — 53 brands, 5.47 million tracked queries, 2.43 billion organic impressions from January 2025 through February 2026 (Seer Interactive) — shows a steep decline and a partial recovery:
| Month | Organic CTR, AIO shown | Organic CTR, no AIO |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 3.19% | 2.75% |
| Dec 2025 (trough) | 1.31% | 3.16% |
| Feb 2026 | 2.36% | 3.82% |
Independent estimates are directionally consistent: Ahrefs' 300,000-keyword analysis associated AI Overview presence with a 58% lower CTR for the top-ranking page as of December 2025, and Pew Research found users click a traditional result on only 8% of searches with an AI summary (vs 15% without).
The citation gap is the story
On the same queries, brands cited inside the AI Overview earned about 2.1% CTR while uncited brands earned about 0.9% — a 2.3x difference. The February 2026 recovery was driven disproportionately by brands that grew their citation share. The strategic conclusion: the game moved from ranking to being cited.
Not all queries are equally affected
AI Overviews appear on roughly 95% of comparison queries and 86% of question queries, but only about 5% of transactional queries. Sites weighted toward transactional and comparison intent keep more of their click volume — and comparison pages that earn citations can gain share.
Fewer clicks, better clicks
Multiple datasets point the same way: AI-search visitors convert at roughly 3x other channels and are worth about 4.4x a traditional organic visitor. In affiliate contexts, AI-sourced traffic has been reported converting near 14% versus about 2.8% for classic Google referrals.
Frequently asked questions
- Did AI Overviews stop reducing clicks in 2026?
- Partially. Organic CTR on AI Overview queries bottomed at 1.31% in December 2025 and rebounded 85% to 2.36% by February 2026, but it remains well below the 3.82% CTR of queries without an AI Overview. The floor stopped falling; the gap persists.
- What share of searches trigger an AI Overview?
- A 21.9-million-search study measured 25.11% of Google searches triggering an AI Overview in Q1 2026, up sharply from 7.64% in February 2025. Prevalence is highest on comparison (about 95%) and question (about 86%) queries.
- Is AI-search traffic worth optimizing for?
- Yes, on value-per-visitor. Studies report AI-search visitors convert around three times as often as other channels and are worth roughly 4.4 times a traditional organic visitor, which can offset lower raw click volume for many sites.
Sources
- AIO Impact on Google CTR: 2026 Update (Seer Interactive, accessed 2026-07-14)
- Google AI Overviews CTR shows early recovery (Search Engine Land, accessed 2026-07-14)
- AI Overviews and Organic Traffic: 2026 data (Contently, accessed 2026-07-14)
- Google AI Overviews and Organic CTR in 2026 (ALM Corp, accessed 2026-07-14)